Saturday, February 7, 2015

The Phil Fallacy

I always thought there was something a little off about Punxsutawney Phil's weather predictions but couldn't quite put my finger on it. For awhile I thought it was because Phil resided on the east coast so his predictions didn't extend to the west coast,then I found Groundfog a local (Washington) frog whose prognostications were usually in opposition with Phil,but I still wasn't 100% satisfied with either of their predictions. Now to further muddy the waters it comes to my attention that hedgehogs were the original weather predictors but since they weren't indigenous to North America the early settlers turned to groundhogs for their weather predicting needs. Finally it has come full circle and Whiskers J of the Oregon Zoo has thrown his hat into the weather predicting ring indicating that winter is over for this year! Hedgehogs have a 40% accuracy rate where groundhogs are at a measly 39%. One more thing...why do they have to be hedgehogs? Why can't they share the hedge??



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